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That might sound obvious. It matters anyway. The Hormuz crisis has stopped being a disruption event and started being a reset. The routes, the hubs, the supplier relationships, and the procurement strategies that moved bulk diesel fuel, Jet A1 fuel, LPG, and crude around the planet for the past decade are being rebuilt. Some of that rebuilding will reverse when the strait reopens. A lot of it won’t.
The question that matters now isn’t ‘when does Hormuz reopen?’ It’s harder than that: what does fuel supply and trading look like when the old geography stops being reliable? And who has already built the relationships to operate in the new one?
This is a region-by-region account of where things actually stand.
The Numbers Behind the Disruption
Before the conflict, roughly 20 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz every single day. About 20% of global petroleum liquids and 20% of the world’s LNG supply, all passing through a channel that’s 34 kilometers wide at its narrowest point.
On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran set off a chain of retaliatory attacks on vessels and oil infrastructure across the Gulf. The IRGC declared vessel passage effectively prohibited. By early March, daily crossings had fallen from 138 ships to four.
The cost of routing around that shutdown is accumulating faster than most forecasts anticipated. Al Habtoor Research Centre estimates the enforced rerouting is generating weekly losses of $2 to $3 billion in additional operating costs alone. The Middle East Insider puts the total monthly cost of the Cape of Good Hope rerouting at over $8 billion across the global fleet.
Whatever happens diplomatically, the logistics industry has already repriced. The old map is being replaced, not patched.
Route 2: Fujairah, From Reserve Asset to Front-Line Hub
The biggest change in Gulf fuel supply and trading since the crisis began is what’s happened to Fujairah.
Thirty days ago it was a strategic reserve asset and one of the world’s major bunkering ports. Now it’s the region’s primary active crude export hub, handling volumes it was never originally designed for at this scale.
Crude loadings from Fujairah averaged approximately 1.9 million barrels per day between March 20 and 24, up roughly 57% from the 2025 average according to tanker tracking data. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), a $2.7 billion, 370-kilometer line connecting ADNOC’s onshore fields at Habshan to the port on the Gulf of Oman, is now running near capacity. It’s the UAE’s only way to export oil entirely outside the strait.
Beyond crude, Fujairah is handling rerouted refined product loadings from Abu Dhabi facilities, emergency bunkering for vessels that previously routed through the strait, and serving as the most accessible bypass point for tankers operating in the Indian Ocean. The third-largest bunkering port in the world has become the Gulf’s logistics nerve center practically overnight.
The capacity ceiling is real. Combined pipeline bypass capacity across the Gulf runs to approximately 9 million barrels per day. The strait was moving 20 million. For any Dubai wholesale fuel supplier or trader working the Gulf, Fujairah is the best loading option available right now. That advantage has been fully priced in.
Route 3: The Atlantic Basin, Europe and Asia’s New Supply Source
With Middle Eastern supply cut back sharply, the Atlantic Basin has become the new reference point for buyers in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.
Forbes analysis identified Atlantic Basin producers as having ‘the greatest immediate potential’ among all the alternatives, because they carry spare capacity and can activate supply faster than most other options. The U.S. Gulf Coast, Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Guyana, and Brazil are all absorbing demand that previously went to Gulf suppliers.
One data point captures the scale of the shift better than most charts. Bloomberg reported on March 31 that two ships carrying Jet A1 fuel, the Puffin Pacific and Pyxis Lamda, left New York harbor bound for England. The U.S. hadn’t sent jet fuel from New York to Europe since July 2024. A nine-month gap, closed by a conflict 10,000 kilometers away.
For bulk fuel suppliers in the Atlantic Basin, the demand pull is real and growing. For buyers in Europe, Asia, and East Africa who have historically sourced from the Gulf, it means longer lead times, different product specifications, and supplier relationships that didn’t exist three months ago. Building those takes time that buyers operating in a hurry simply don’t have right now.
Jet A1 Fuel: Asia’s Immediate Emergency
Nothing in the supply chain has been hit harder than Jet A1 fuel.
The New York Times documented the cascade across Asia: China imposed Jet A1 export restrictions within days of the conflict starting. That shook the whole region hard, since China supplies at least half the jet fuel consumed in some neighboring countries. Thailand and South Korea followed with their own restrictions. Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority warned of shortages arriving as early as April. Vietnam Airlines suspended seven domestic routes from April 1 and cancelled 23 flights per week to manage the supply.
The airline cost numbers are severe. AeroTime reported that Korean Air entered emergency management mode for April, with projected fuel costs of around $4.50 per gallon against the $2.20 built into its business plan. American Airlines is expecting $400 million in first-quarter expense increases. Delta absorbed a $400 million fuel bill increase in March alone.
Three things are now defining the Jet A1 market.
Supply consolidation
China, Thailand, and South Korea have locked down their export capacity. Atlantic Basin and Mediterranean refiners have become the marginal suppliers to Asia, handling volumes at a scale that’s genuinely new territory for them.
Freight cost compounding
Jet A1 requires specialized tankers, and those vessels are being diverted like everything else. The product cost and the transport cost have both risen at the same time. The combined impact shows up in landed costs at Asian airports, and those costs are flowing directly into ticket prices.
Specification constraints
This is the one that catches buyers off guard. Jet A1 carries strict quality requirements under ASTM D1655 and DefStan 91-091 that limit how easily you can substitute a new origin. You can’t simply point at a different refinery and assume the product is compatible. Confirming quality compliance with a verified fuel supplier isn’t a preference in this environment. It’s the basic requirement for keeping aircraft operational.
LPG: A Market Being Rewired
The LPG disruption is getting less press coverage than crude and jet fuel. The social consequences are considerably more immediate.
S&P Global describes Asia’s LPG market as having shifted from ‘price optimization to urgent supply management.’ That distinction matters. Price optimization is a business problem. Urgent supply management is what happens when people start wondering whether they can cook dinner.
India imports approximately 53% of its oil and 40 to 47% of its LNG from the Middle East. After the conflict broke, residents in Indian cities started stockpiling LPG cooking fuel. Six LPG carriers were among the 22 vessels stranded in the strait as of mid-March, and the Indian government was in active diplomatic negotiations trying to secure their passage.
University classes in Bangladesh were suspended. Gas stations in the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam put up sold-out signs. Governments in multiple countries rolled out emergency conservation measures. That’s not a market dislocation. That’s a supply chain assumption collapsing: the assumption that the strait stays open.
U.S. LPG from Mont Belvieu and Gulf Coast terminals has become the primary alternative for Asian buyers, though rerouting adds weeks to delivery timelines. West African sources are getting more serious attention than they have in years.
Mediterranean: The Atlantic Basin’s New LNG Demand Center
For LNG, the pattern is the same.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility was struck by Iranian drones and declared force majeure on all exports. European buyers who depended on Qatari supply are now competing hard for Atlantic Basin cargoes. LNG Journal reported on March 30 that the Mediterranean has become a ‘critical Atlantic Basin demand center,’ with buyers in Italy, Greece, and Turkey all chasing prompt deliveries. The Mediterranean marker hit $20.73 per MMBtu on March 19.
U.S. LNG export infrastructure is running near capacity and can’t replace what Qatar was supplying. Every available molecule outside the conflict zone is being competed for right now.
What Fuel Buyers and Sellers Should Do Now
The trade route shift happening right now exposes structural vulnerabilities in global fuel supply solutions that were there before the crisis and won’t disappear when the strait reopens. Four things are worth acting on immediately.
Requalify your supply chain for the new geography. If your sourcing was built around Gulf-origin cargoes transiting the strait, you need alternative origins now. That means requalifying suppliers in the Atlantic Basin, West Africa, the Mediterranean, and Southeast Asia. Finding product isn’t the hard part. Finding verified fuel suppliers in regions you haven’t worked in before, who can meet your quality, documentation, and delivery requirements, is. That work started being urgent about six weeks ago.
Reprice all logistics assumptions. Every freight calculation, insurance premium, and INCOTERM figure from before February 28 is wrong. Bunker costs for the Cape route have gone up significantly. War risk insurance for Gulf-adjacent waters has tripled. CMA CGM has introduced emergency conflict surcharges of up to $4,000 per container on Gulf-origin cargo. Any bulk diesel fuel procurement in oil and gas that doesn’t account for these new cost realities is either overpriced to the buyer or heading for a loss.
Treat verified counterparties as a strategic asset. Counterparty quality matters more right now than it did six months ago. In a market moving this fast, with new supply origins and new routes, a verified fuel supplier with a real track record on documentation, quality compliance, and physical delivery execution is worth paying a premium for. The alternative is learning the hard way which new contacts can actually perform under pressure.
Build multi-origin sourcing into your default strategy. The operators navigating 2026 most effectively are the ones who had established relationships with bulk fuel suppliers across multiple regions before the Gulf routes closed. Single-origin supply chains are a structural liability. That’s the clearest thing this crisis has demonstrated, and it’s a procurement strategy decision that can still be made now.
Frequently Asked Questions
How has the Strait of Hormuz closure changed global fuel trade routes?
The closure has forced approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil away from the strait, with most cargo now rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. That adds 10 to 14 days and $1.1 to $2.5 million in additional bunker costs per round trip. Fujairah has become the Gulf’s primary export hub via the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, while Atlantic Basin producers are supplying markets that previously depended on the Middle East.
What is Fujairah’s role in the 2026 fuel supply crisis?
Fujairah is now the UAE’s primary crude export hub, processing approximately 1.9 million barrels per day, up 57% from 2025 averages. It operates as the Gulf’s main Hormuz bypass point via the ADCOP pipeline. For any Dubai wholesale fuel supplier or trader working the Gulf, Fujairah is currently the most competitive loading option. Capacity constraints mean that advantage is already reflected in pricing.
Where is Jet A1 fuel being sourced from now?
With Middle Eastern Jet A1 supply disrupted and China, Thailand, and South Korea restricting exports, Atlantic Basin and Mediterranean refiners have become the marginal suppliers to Asia. The clearest illustration: two ships carrying Jet A1 fuel departed New York harbor for England on March 31, 2026, the first such shipment since July 2024. Sourcing geography has shifted dramatically in under two months.
How much is the Cape of Good Hope rerouting actually costing?
The Cape reroute adds 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 extra days per voyage. For a Panamax vessel, additional bunker cost runs $1.1 to $1.3 million per round trip. For a VLCS at 15,000+ TEU, $2 to $2.5 million. Across the global fleet, The Middle East Insider estimates total additional monthly costs above $8 billion.
How is the LPG market affected by the Hormuz crisis?
Six LPG carriers were among the 22 vessels stranded in the strait as of mid-March 2026. S&P Global describes Asia’s LPG market as having shifted from price optimization to urgent supply management. India, importing 40 to 47% of its LNG from the Middle East, saw immediate consumer stockpiling. U.S. Gulf Coast terminals are now the primary alternative source, though rerouting adds weeks to delivery timelines.
Where Petrolodex Fits
Petrolodex was built around the reality that fuel supply and trading requires verified counterparties across multiple regions. The Hormuz crisis has put pressure on every part of that premise over the past fifty days, and the platform is handling it.
Whether you’re sourcing bulk diesel fuel for a fleet in North Africa, Jet A1 fuel for an airline operation in Southeast Asia, LPG for distribution in South Asia, or fuel oil for industrial operations in Europe, Petrolodex connects you with verified fuel suppliers and active offers from multiple origins. That includes the Atlantic Basin, the Mediterranean, and the Gulf bypass routes that are now carrying the weight of global supply flows.
Explore current offers at petrolodex.com/current-performing-offers
