Brent Just Crossed $106. Here Is What It Means for Fuel Buyers in Africa, Latin America, and Asia.

On the morning of April 23, 2026, Brent crude rose to $106.36 per barrel, up 4.37% in a single session and 59.83% higher than the same date one year ago, according to Trading Economics data.

That number does not exist in isolation. It lands somewhere specific. In a fuel depot in Johannesburg. In a Petrobras pricing spreadsheet in Rio. In a terminal manager’s inbox in Singapore at six in the morning. In the fish market in Panama City, where one fisherman told Al Jazeera his cost per trip had jumped from $1,400 to $1,900 in under eight weeks.

The Iran war that began in late February has destroyed approximately 500 million barrels of oil globally, according to Rystad Energy. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy, arguably the most connected physical oil trader on the planet, told a recent conference the world is facing a supply deficit of close to 1 billion barrels. The IEA released a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, the largest coordinated release in the organization’s 52-year history, and oil prices went up anyway.

So what does $106 Brent actually mean for a fuel buyer in Nairobi, Santiago, or Ho Chi Minh City? The answer differs by country, by currency, by how import-dependent you are, and by how many weeks of reserve your government happened to be holding when this started. Here is the region-by-region reality.

Africa: the continent that imports everything and absorbs everything

Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s most exposed fuel import region. Most of it has no meaningful domestic refining capacity. When global oil prices move, African consumers feel it faster and harder than almost anyone, with none of the subsidy buffers that advanced economies maintain, and none of the strategic reserve depth either.

South Africa

South African motorists faced what the DMRE called “historic” increases for April 2026. Diesel jumped between R7.37 and R7.51 per litre in a single month, and that was after the National Treasury cut the general fuel levy by R3.00 per litre to cushion the blow. Without that intervention, the increase would have been closer to R10 per litre.

The May projections are grimmer. The South African fuel price tracking site The South African reports projected May diesel hikes of R14.85 to R14.91 per litre, an extraordinary single-month increase. At the time of those projections, Brent was at $107.47 and the rand was trading at R16.99 to the dollar. With Brent now at $106 and still climbing, those numbers are not softening.

Namibia

The Ministry of Industries, Mines and Energy announced April 1 price adjustments that added N$4.00 per litre to all diesel grades. Petrol increased N$2.50 per litre. The National Energy Fund absorbed approximately N$500 million to prevent the full market price from hitting consumers, but that fund is finite, and the political pressure to keep it solvent is rising.

East Africa

East Africa imports all of its refined petroleum, primarily from the Middle East. Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, they are all price-takers with no local production buffer. In response to the growing fuel insecurity, Kenyan President William Ruto announced at a Nairobi infrastructure conference that East African nations were discussing a joint refinery in Tanzania’s port city of Tanga. Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote, who built the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery, said he would replicate it in East Africa if governments could agree.

That refinery, if it gets built, would change the region’s exposure at a fundamental level. But at best it is four to five years away. For procurement teams sourcing diesel and jet A1 fuel across East Africa today, the supply reality is what it is: every barrel is coming from somewhere far away, and every one of those voyages just got more expensive and more uncertain.

Sources: The South African, MIME Namibia, OEDigital Energy News, Nairobi Infrastructure Conference, April 2026

Latin America: “Who would have imagined the Strait of Hormuz would hit us here?”

That quote is from a Panamanian fuel buyer, speaking to Al Jazeera’s Alessandro Rampietti from the fish market in Panama City. It captures something happening all across Latin America right now: a region that does not produce most of its own oil, does not have deep reserves, and is staring at fuel price increases it was not built to absorb.

Chile

Chile was one of the hardest first hits. On March 26, the government of new President José Antonio Kast announced a historic fuel price increase: gasoline from $1.30 to $1.70 per litre and diesel from $1.00 to $1.70 per litre. The country had been running a fuel price control mechanism costing roughly $140 million per week, a political and fiscal impossibility to maintain at $100-plus Brent. Kast ended it. Economist Juan Ortiz told AFP that the diesel shock would be “unprecedented” and that the inflation impact would be felt most sharply in April.

Brazil

Petrobras moved on March 14, raising the price of diesel sold to distributors by 0.38 reais ($0.0725) per litre, bringing its average distributor price to 3.65 reais per litre. The Lula government responded with a dual move, cutting diesel taxes while raising a tax on oil exports, trying to thread the needle between protecting consumers and protecting fiscal revenue.

Brazil’s ethanol sector, built after the 1973 oil crisis and expanded over 50 years, is now being used hard. The government is actively considering increasing the mandated ethanol blend in vehicle fuel. Argentina is doing the same with its own bioethanol capacity. When an oil shock hits, countries with domestic fuel alternatives reach for them fast. Countries without them just pay.

Panama and Central America

Panama is fully import-dependent. Diesel crossed $5 per gallon for the first time in the country’s history. The government capped public transport fares and electricity rates and introduced LPG subsidies almost immediately to avoid civil unrest. Bus and metro schedules were reduced anyway. The fishermen, who buy diesel for their trips, have no subsidy. Their costs jumped 36% in two months.

This pattern, governments absorbing what they can and consumers absorbing the rest, is playing out from Colombia to Costa Rica to Ecuador. The countries with the most dollar-denominated import exposure and the weakest fiscal positions are feeling it hardest.

The Subsidy Trap

Foreign Policy and Al Jazeera both covered the bind Latin American governments are in: fuel subsidies cost billions per week at $100-plus Brent, but removing them triggers protests and political instability. Brazil, Chile, Panama, and Ecuador are all navigating different versions of the same problem. The ones who cut subsidies fastest, like Chile, took the immediate political hit. The ones who kept them, like Brazil and Panama partially, are watching their fiscal positions deteriorate. Neither path leads somewhere comfortable.

Asia: Where The Crisis Has Already Gone Beyond Prices

If Africa is absorbing the price shock and Latin America is managing a political crisis, Asia is the place where the fuel disruption has already translated into physical shortages. A Reuters report published April 23 confirmed that Asia has deepened refining cuts because of the Iran war, specifically flagging diesel and jet A1 fuel supplies at risk. Asia’s April crude imports are the lowest since 2016, according to Kpler. That data means less refinery throughput, which means less product, which means tighter regional supply for every fuel buyer from Tokyo to Karachi.

Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines

The New York Times ran a detailed dispatch in late March with a headline that said what many were thinking: “If You Want to Know What Happens in an Oil Crisis, Look at Asia.” Bangladesh suspended university classes to reduce fuel consumption. The Philippines moved to a four-day workweek. Gas stations in Vietnam and Thailand displayed “sold out” signs. Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority warned that jet fuel shortages could occur as early as April.

Vietnam’s fuel supply problem runs deep: three-quarters of its fuel comes from China and Thailand, both of which imposed export restrictions in the weeks after the conflict began. South Korea, another major regional refiner, restricted gasoline and diesel exports. The domino effect, one country protecting its domestic supply by cutting exports and creating a shortage in the next country, ran fast through Southeast Asia.

Australia

Australia imports 90% of its fuel. In early March it had approximately 32 days of jet fuel supply on hand. Then at least one fuel tanker destined for Australia failed to load at a Chinese port in mid-March. The CEO of Sydney Airport, which handles 40% of Australia’s jet fuel consumption, said his terminal’s supply reliability “depends on international shipping routes, global refining capacity, and geopolitical stability,” and then added quietly that the war “jeopardizes all these aspects.”

The Australian government passed emergency fuel purchasing legislation that week, allocating up to $3 billion for urgent fuel expenditure and establishing strategic reserves for fuel and critical minerals. It passed without a parliamentary inquiry. That tells you something about how urgent things felt.

Pacific Islands

The Asian Development Bank’s deputy chief economist Abdul Abiad said the picture was “particularly vulnerable” for Pacific Island nations, where fuel imports account for 8% to 11% of GDP in many countries and 27% of GDP in Tuvalu. Kpler data showed that in 2025, Pacific countries imported 2.2 million metric tonnes of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, mostly from Singapore and South Korea. In the first half of March, imports collapsed to about a quarter of that level. Abiad’s conclusion was direct: “There will be a lot of pain.”

Why The Largest Emergency Reserve Release In History Was Not Enough

On March 11, the IEA announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil from its 32 member nations, more than double the 182.7 million released after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. French President Macron described it as “20 days’ worth of exports through the Strait of Hormuz.” Brent was at $107 when the announcement came. It dipped briefly, then went back up. Today it is at $106.36 and rising for a fourth consecutive session.

The reason is straightforward. Four hundred million barrels plugs a gap for roughly three weeks. The conflict has been running for eight weeks and shows no sign of ending. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said explicitly that restoring Hormuz shipping remains “essential” for price stabilization, because no amount of reserve releases changes the supply picture if the strait stays restricted. The IEA estimates that export volumes of crude and refined products are currently at less than 10% of pre-war levels. Global visible oil inventories have declined by approximately 225 million barrels since the conflict began. The reserve release has slowed the drawdown. It has not stopped it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current price of Brent crude oil in April 2026?

Brent crude rose to $106.36 per barrel on April 23, 2026, up 4.37% from the previous session and 59.83% higher than the same date one year ago, according to Trading Economics. Oil prices have risen for four consecutive sessions, supported by strong demand data and continuing geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran peace talks.

Why did oil prices cross $100 again after the ceasefire was announced?

The US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 was a two-week agreement, not a permanent resolution. Iran’s conditions for a full peace deal, including sanctions removal, enrichment rights, and US troop withdrawal, have not been met. Peace talks stalled as of April 23. The Strait of Hormuz remains under conditional access, and GCC production curtailments of an estimated 4 to 6 mb/d remain in effect. The IEA’s 400 million barrel emergency release slowed price gains but did not offset the supply deficit.

How much has the oil price shock affected diesel prices in Africa?

Impacts vary by country. South Africa saw diesel hikes of R7.37 to R7.51 per litre in April 2026, even after the National Treasury cut the fuel levy by R3 per litre. May projections show a further increase of R14.85 to R14.91 per litre. Namibia added N$4.00 per litre to all diesel grades effective April 1. East African countries, which import all refined petroleum, are experiencing multi-year high prices with no domestic buffer to absorb them.

What is Goldman Sachs’ oil price forecast for the rest of 2026?

Goldman Sachs updated its forecasts on April 9, 2026. Their base case projects Q3 Brent at $82 per barrel and Q4 at $80, assuming the ceasefire holds and Hormuz stabilizes. Their upside scenario, if the ceasefire fails and roughly 2 mb/d of production losses persist, puts Q4 Brent at $115. If the Strait of Hormuz stays mostly shut, Goldman flagged Brent could average $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4. Trading Economics’ model separately projects Brent at $112.69 by end of Q2.

Why did the IEA’s 400 million barrel reserve release not lower oil prices?

400 million barrels represents approximately 20 days of normal Hormuz export flow. The conflict has been running for over eight weeks with no confirmed resolution. The IEA release slowed inventory drawdowns but could not offset a sustained supply deficit estimated at approximately 1 billion barrels by Vitol CEO Russell Hardy, alongside a global inventory decline of 225 million barrels since the conflict began. IEA executive director Fatih Birol stated that restoring Hormuz shipping remains essential for price stabilization.

Where can I source bulk diesel fuel or Jet A-1 reliably during the current supply disruption?

Petrolodex operates as a global fuel supply and trading platform connecting buyers with verified suppliers for EN590 bulk diesel fuel, Jet A-1, MGO, LPG, and crude oil across Africa, South America, and Asia-Pacific. We are a Dubai-based wholesale fuel brokerage with access to alternative supply corridors operating outside the Hormuz disruption. Contact us at petrolodex.com.